文章基本信息

标题：How Much CO 2 Emissions Can Be Reduced in Chinaâ€™s Heating Industry
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作者：Lin, Jing ; Lin, Boqiang
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2016
卷号：8
期号：7
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Chinaâ€™s heating industry is a coal-fired industry with serious environmental issues. CO 2 emissions from the heating industry accounted for an average 6.1% of Chinaâ€™s carbon emissions during 1985â€“2010. The potential for reducing emissions in Chinaâ€™s heating industry is evaluated by co-integration analysis and scenario analysis. The results demonstrate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship among CO 2 emissions and the influencing factors, including energy intensity, industrial scale, labor productivity, and energy productivity. Monte Carlo technique is adopted for risk analysis. It is found that the CO 2 emissions reduction potential of the heating industry will be 26.7 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2020 and 64.8 Mtce in 2025 under the moderate scenario, compared with 50.6 Mtce in 2020 and 122.1 Mtce in 2025 under the advanced scenario. Policy suggestions are provided accordingly.
关键词：CO 2 emissions; Chinaâ€™s heating industry; co-integration; scenario analysis; Monte Carlo Simulation