文章基本信息

标题：A Hybrid Multi-Step Rolling Forecasting Model Based on SSA and Simulated Annealingâ€”Adaptive Particle Swarm Optimization for Wind Speed
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作者：Du, Pei ; Jin, Yu ; Zhang, Kequan 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2016
卷号：8
期号：8
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：With the limitations of conventional energy becoming increasing distinct, wind energy is emerging as a promising renewable energy source that plays a critical role in the modern electric and economic fields. However, how to select optimization algorithms to forecast wind speed series and improve prediction performance is still a highly challenging problem. Traditional single algorithms are widely utilized to select and optimize parameters of neural network algorithms, but these algorithms usually ignore the significance of parameter optimization, precise searching, and the application of accurate data, which results in poor forecasting performance. With the aim of overcoming the weaknesses of individual algorithms, a novel hybrid algorithm was created, which can not only easily obtain the real and effective wind speed series by using singular spectrum analysis, but also possesses stronger adaptive search and optimization capabilities than the other algorithms: it is faster, has fewer parameters, and is less expensive. For the purpose of estimating the forecasting ability of the proposed combined model, 10-min wind speed series from three wind farms in Shandong Province, eastern China, are employed as a case study. The experimental results were considerably more accurately predicted by the presented algorithm than the comparison algorithms.
关键词：renewable and sustainable energy; multi-step rolling wind speed forecasting; singular spectrum analysis; APSOSA algorithm