文章基本信息

标题：Considering uncertainties within an emergency prediction model in an urban environement
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作者：Tonio Fincke ; Jochen Schiewe ; Karl-Peter Traub 等
期刊名称：ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences
印刷版ISSN：2194-9042
电子版ISSN：2194-9050
出版年度：2009
卷号：XXXVIII-2/W11
出版社：Copernicus Publications
摘要：Although uncertainties appear in almost every analysis or simulation, they are often not considered or described explicitly. Especiallyin complex models they can become very large. The neglect of describing them can lead to an unjustified confidence in the results. Inthis paper we present a plan for developing a complex model in which we explicitly describe the occurrence and propagation of datauncertainties. For this model we will examine the relationship between socio-demographic conditions and the amount of emergenciesin an urban area. We will further estimate the future development of the socio-demographic conditions. These findings will serve asa base for a district-wise prediction of emergencies. We will identify possible sources for uncertainty and introduce first ideas to dealwith them. Our aim is to make a statement of the uncertainty of the model's result.
关键词：Uncertainties; Rescue Services; Urban Environment; Prediction Model