文章基本信息

标题：Dynamic Modelling of Dengue Epidemics in Function of Available Enthalpy and Rainfall
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作者：Hugo Abi Karam ; Julio Cesar Barreto da Silva ; Augusto José Pereira Filho 等
期刊名称：Open Journal of Epidemiology
印刷版ISSN：2165-7459
电子版ISSN：2165-7467
出版年度：2016
卷号：06
期号：01
页码：50-79
DOI：10.4236/ojepi.2016.61007
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：In this work, we present results of an investigation of environmental precursors of infectious epidemic of dengue fever in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil, obtained by a numerical model with representation of infection and reinfection of the population. The period considered extend between 2000 and 2011, in which it was possible to pair meteorological data and the reporting of dengue patients worsening. These data should also be considered in the numerical model, by assimilation, to obtain simulations of Dengue epidemics. The model contains compartments for the human population, for the vector Aedes aegypti and four virus serotypes. The results provide consistent evidence that worsening infection and disease outbreaks are due to the occurrence of environmental precursors, as the dynamics of the accumulation of water in the breeding and energy availability in the form of metabolic activation enthalpy during pre-epidemic periods.
关键词：Modelling Dengue Epidemics;Environmental Enthalpy;Environmental Precursors of Dengue Epidemics