文章基本信息

标题：Implementation of the Estimating Functions Approach in Asset Returns Volatility Forecasting Using First Order Asymmetric GARCH Models
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作者：Timothy Ndonye Mutunga ; Ali Salim Islam ; Luke Akong’o Orawo 等
期刊名称：Open Journal of Statistics
印刷版ISSN：2161-718X
电子版ISSN：2161-7198
出版年度：2015
卷号：05
期号：05
页码：455-464
DOI：10.4236/ojs.2015.55047
语种：English
出版社：Scientific Research Publishing
摘要：This paper implements the method of estimating functions (EF) in the modelling and forecasting of financial returns volatility. This estimation approach incorporates higher order moments which are common in most financial time series, into modelling, leading to a substantial gain of information and overall efficiency benefits. The two models considered in this paper provide a better in-sample-fit under the estimating functions approach relative to the traditional maximum likely-hood estimation (MLE) approach when fitted to empirical time series. On this ground, the EF approach is employed in the first order EGARCH and GJR-GARCH models to forecast the volatility of two market indices from the USA and Japanese stock markets. The loss functions, mean square error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), have been utilized in evaluating the predictive ability of the EGARCH vis-à-vis the GJR-GARCH model.
关键词：Estimating Function;Asymmetric GARCH;Volatility;Mean Square Error;Mean Absolute Error