文章基本信息

标题：Rice producers ’ behavior towards unpredictable price and ambient temperature changes: Analysis with ARCH and SUR for the major agricultural regions in the Philippines
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作者：Raquel M. Balanay ; Harold Glenn A. Valera
期刊名称：International Journal of Development and Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2186-8662
出版年度：2014
卷号：3
期号：1
页码：1-19
出版社：International Society for Development and Sustainability (ISDS)
摘要：The study has investigated the behavior of rice prices and mean temperature levels in Central Luzon, CALABARZON, Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, Western Visayas and Northern Mindanao, which are the major rice producing areas in the Philippines. ARCH is usedto analyze the changes of these variables to determine whether these changes can pose risks through their volatilities to the rice producers. SUR is used to determine through supply response estimationsthe influence of which on rice production in the said areas of the country. Results of the study indicate that rice prices and mean temperature levels in the concerned areas have volatile changes, which can augment the risks faced by rice producers in the country. But the volatile changes and risks posed bythese variables are found not to affect rice production in the said areas. This findingmay be attributed to the programs of the Philippine government for the improvement of the rice industryfor increasedefficiency. Sustained efforts of the government and other entities for the development of rice industry in the country may enable it to gain competitiveness particularly in the global market.
关键词：ARC; SUR; volatility; supply response and risks