文章基本信息

标题：MODELLING AND PREDICTING THE INDIRECT TAXES IN ROMANIA
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作者：Mihaela SIMIONESCU
期刊名称：Financial Studies
印刷版ISSN：2066-6071
出版年度：2015
卷号：19
期号：2
出版社：“Victor Slăvescu‿Centre for Financial and Monetary Research
摘要：The main aim of this study is to model and predict the quarterly indirect taxes in Romania. This variable provides important information for the standard levelling in a country. for data covering the period from 2004:Q1 to 2014:Q2, some econometric models were proposed (multiple regression model, trend model and a vector-autoregression- VAR model. 45.52% of the variation in differentiated data series of logarithmic indirect taxes is explained by GDP and share of social assurance. According to Granger causality test for stationary data, at 5% level of significance the GDP index evolution is a cause for the indirect tax. In the first period almost 97.08% of the variation in indirect taxes is due to the changes in the values of this variable while only 2.923% of its variation is determined by the changes in GDP index. For the first 10 periods, the influence of GDP index does not exceed 3%. For the first quarter of 2014, the trend model provided the best prediction while for the second one the VAR process performed the best. For the next quarters of 2014 all the models predicted a decrease in indirect taxes in Romania.
关键词：indirect taxes; forecasts; trend; VAR model