首页    期刊浏览 2024年12月12日 星期四
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:Factors determining the international prices of basic commodities
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Carolina Arteaga ; Joan Granados ; Jair Ojeda Joya
  • 期刊名称:Ensayos sobre Política Económica
  • 印刷版ISSN:0120-4483
  • 出版年度:2013
  • 卷号:31
  • 期号:71
  • 页码:85-107
  • 出版社:Banco de la Republica, Bogotà
  • 摘要:

    In this work, an analysis is made of the dynamic response to most relevant basic commodity prices for the evolution of inflation for the consumer in Colombia due to shocks in a group of determining factors. The document is based on structural vector autoregression (VAR) models in which the external shocks are identified by restricting contemporaneous effects between the variables of the system. Quarterly data for the period from the first quarter of 1980 to the third quarter of 2010 was used for the calculation. In accordance with the results, monetary policy, the multilateral exchange rate of the United States of America and the GDP of developed and emerging countries explain a considerable percentage of the prognostic error variance of basic commodity prices. Furthermore, in general terms, the response of the prices due to a monetary policy shock is negative, instantaneous and statistically significant. Shocks to the exchange rate show a negative association with the prices, although not always significant, and in the majority of cases the real activity variables, both in developed countries and in the emerging ones has a positive relationship with the prices considered.

  • 关键词:E40; E52; Q11; Basic commodity prices; Structural VAR; Oil price; Cointegration
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有