文章基本信息

标题：Vietnam Trade Balance and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis
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作者：Thanh Hoan Phan ; Ji Young Jeong
期刊名称：Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research
电子版ISSN：1927-033X
出版年度：2015
卷号：5
期号：4
页码：220-232
出版社：Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research
摘要：This study attempts to examine the effect of real exchange rate, domestic and foreign income on bilateral trade balance for Vietnam and her sixteen trading partners over the period 1999-2012. This study for the first time applies the most recently developed panel co-integration method to examine the long-run relationship between the real exchange rate and bilateral trade. The null hypothesis of no co-integration is rejected in all tests, implying that there is a long-run relationship between trade balance, real exchange rate, domestic income, and foreign income in the case of Vietnam. The results from both panel FMOLS and DOLS estimation show that, overall, the real exchange rate and domestic income have negative effect on trade balance, whereas foreign income reported positive effect on trade balance. All variables are in expected sign and statistically significant. A policy implication from this study is that Vietnam’s trade balance can be improved by restructuring the economy rather than devaluating currency in the long run.
关键词：Trade balance; Real exchange rate; Panel co-integration; DOLS; FMOLS; Vietnam