文章基本信息

标题：Forecasting forecasts: The trend effect
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作者：Hohle, Sigrid MÃ¸yner ; Teigen, Karl Halvor
期刊名称：Judgment and Decision Making
印刷版ISSN：1930-2975
出版年度：2015
卷号：10
期号：5
页码：416-428
出版社：Society for Judgment and Decision Making
摘要：People often make predictions about the future based on trends they have observed in the past. Revised probabilistic forecasts can be perceived by the public as indicative of such a trend. In five studies, we describe experts who make probabilistic forecasts of various natural events (effects of climate changes, landslide and earthquake risks) at two points in time. Prognoses that have been upgraded or downgraded from $T_1$ to $T_2$ were in all studies expected to be updated further, in the same direction, later on (at $T_3$). Thus, two prognoses were in these studies enough to define a trend, forming the basis for future projections. This ``trend effect'' implies that non-experts interpret recent forecast in light of what the expert said in the past, and think, for instance, that a ``moderate'' landslide risk will cause more worry if it has previously been low than if it has been high. By transcending the experts' most recent forecasts the receivers are far from conservative, and appear to know more about the experts' next prognoses than the experts themselves.
关键词：climate forecasts; predictions; risk communication; trends; evaluability.