文章基本信息

标题：Predicting the Trend of Taiwanâ€™s Electronic Paper Industry by an Effective Combined Grey Model
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作者：Huang, Ying-Fang ; Wang, Chia-Nan ; Dang, Hoang-Sa 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2015
卷号：7
期号：8
页码：10664-10683
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Electronic paper (e-paper) is a major sector of Taiwanâ€™s Optoelectronic industry. It has paid much attention on the development of flexible displays. Even though the market is booming, the future is still unclear for business development. No research has yet forecasted the future market size of the e-paper industry. In addition, proposing an appropriate forecasting model to understand the trend of this industry plays a crucial role for market players and governmentâ€™s authorities in formulating correct strategies. Therefore, in this paper, the future market size of Taiwanâ€™s e-paper industry is predicted by an effective combined grey model. Two combinations of DGM(2,1) and Verhulst model with Fourier series and Markov chain, namely FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1), were presented. Based on the annual data of Taiwanâ€™s e-paper industry, the results show that the forecasting performances of two FM-Verhulst and FMDGM(2,1) models are highly accurate compared with other grey models. Precision is 96.36% and 97.77%, respectively. However, for long-term prediction, the FMDGM(2,1) model obtains the best performance in all proposed grey models. With obtained forecasting results in Taiwanâ€™s e-paper industry by the FMDGM(2,1) model, it can be pointed out that the future market size of Taiwanâ€™s e-paper would slowly increase in the next few years.
关键词：forecasting; electronic paper; grey model; Fourier series; Markov chain