首页    期刊浏览 2024年12月03日 星期二
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:Sensitivity of carbon budgets to permafrost carbon feedbacks and non-CO2 forcings
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Andrew H MacDougall ; Kirsten Zickfeld ; Reto Knutti
  • 期刊名称:Environmental Research Letters
  • 印刷版ISSN:1748-9326
  • 电子版ISSN:1748-9326
  • 出版年度:2015
  • 卷号:10
  • 期号:12
  • 页码:125003
  • DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/125003
  • 语种:English
  • 出版社:IOP Publishing Ltd
  • 摘要:The near proportionality between cumulative CO2 emissions and change in near surface temperature can be used to define a carbon budget: a finite quantity of carbon that can be burned associated with a chosen 'safe' temperature change threshold. Here we evaluate the sensitivity of this carbon budget to permafrost carbon dynamics and changes in non-CO2 forcings. The carbon budget for 2.0 of warming is reduced from 1320 Pg C when considering only forcing from CO2 to 810 Pg C when considering permafrost carbon feedbacks as well as other anthropogenic contributions to climate change. We also examined net carbon budgets following an overshoot of and return to a warming target. That is, the net cumulative CO2 emissions at the point in time a warming target is restored following artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere to cool the climate back to a chosen temperature target. These overshoot net carbon budgets are consistently smaller than the conventional carbon budgets. Overall carbon budgets persist as a robust and simple conceptual framework to relate the principle cause of climate change to the impacts of climate change.
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有