文章基本信息

标题：Application in Power Load Forecasting Based on an Improved Combination Grey Model Weighted by Correlation
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作者：Jing-min, W. ; Ya-kun, L
期刊名称：International Journal of Electronics Communication and Computer Engineering
印刷版ISSN：2249-071X
电子版ISSN：2278-4209
出版年度：2015
卷号：6
期号：1
页码：44-49
出版社：IJECCE
摘要：It is exceedingly difficult to get accurate predictions for single traditional prediction models because of the volatility, non-linear increment and complexity of power loads. In order to improve the accuracy for long-term power load forecasting, the multivariate exponential weighting grey prediction model, residual grey prediction model, dynamic and equal-dimensional information grey prediction model and equal time sequence grey prediction model were constructed and weighted by correlation so that an improved combination grey prediction model could be built to make a prediction and for empirical analysis. The example shows that the volatility can be effectively reduced by the multivariate exponential weighting model and dynamic equal-dimensional information model. Similarly, the residual model and equal time sequence model are suitable for the power load forecasting with non-linear increasing trend. Considering all kinds of features of power loads, the constructed combination model can improve the accuracy of power load forecasting effectively and ensure the economic and safe operation for power system
关键词：Improved Grey Model; Power Load Forecasting; Correlation Method; Combination Forecasting