文章基本信息

标题：A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF REAL AND PREDICTED INFLATION CONVERGENCE IN CEE COUNTRIES DURING THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
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作者：Mihaela Simionescu
期刊名称：CES Working Papers
电子版ISSN：2067-7693
出版年度：2014
卷号：6
期号：2
出版社：University of Iasi
摘要：The main objective of this study is to make a comparative analysis of inflation convergencein Central-Eastern European countries (CEE countries) during the economic crisis over 2008-2013. ForBulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia the inflation convergence has decreasedin the analyzed period, the coefficient of variation (64.22%) showing strong divergence compared to theslow divergence indirectly predicted by the European Commission. The negative catch-up rates for Bulgaria,Poland and Slovakia explain the large negative consequences of the actual economic crisis for thesecountries. The Fisher-type test for panel data indicated no convergence for real and predicted inflationconvergence. The analysis based on random effects models indicated an inflation convergence rate of15.47% in CEE economies compared to a predicted convergence rate of 2.04%.
关键词：convergence; forecasts; accuracy; catch-up rate; panel unit root test