文章基本信息

标题：Forecasting Of Type-2 Fuzzy Electric Power System Based On Phase Space Reconstruction Model
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作者：Juan Zhao ; Lihui Jiang
期刊名称：International Journal of Grid and Distributed Computing
印刷版ISSN：2005-4262
出版年度：2015
卷号：8
期号：5
页码：263-272
DOI：10.14257/ijgdc.2015.8.5.26
出版社：SERSC
摘要：Type-2 fuzzy logic to make up for the lack of a type of fuzzy logic in dealing with uncertainty, object contains uncertainty is strong; the application of type-2 fuzzy logic advantage is more obvious. In this paper, type-2s of fuzzy logic for power load time series forecasting, good results were obtained. According to the power load has strong randomness it is difficult to accurately forecast problem, the introduction of the type-2 of fuzzy logic in order to reduce the prediction error. According to the power load is difficult to predict accurately the problem, this paper introduces the interval type-2 fuzzy logic method to reduce the prediction error, presents an interval type-2 fuzzy logic model for the time series of one hour of power load forecasting, and adopted the first modeling process model structure, and then use back propagation algorithm to adjust the model parameters are determined by simulation. At the same time, based on the back- propagation algorithm of a fuzzy model with interval type-2 fuzzy model, singular value decomposition iterative blending algorithm of interval type-2 fuzzy model, the predicted result was the test performance benchmark. The simulation results show that the prediction accuracy of the forecasting model, based on the established with high, can better track the actual load curve, a better performance than the other three models.
关键词：Type-2 fuzzy sets; forecasting; reconstruction; similarity measure