文章基本信息

标题：Modelling the Potential Distribution of Three Climate Zonal Tree Species for Present and Future Climate in Hungary
本地全文：下载
作者：Norert MóRICZ ; Ervin RASZTOVITS ; orála GáLOS 等
期刊名称：Acta Silvatica et Lignaria Hungarica
印刷版ISSN：1786-691X
电子版ISSN：1787-064X
出版年度：2013
卷号：9
页码：85-96
出版社：Forestry Commission of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
摘要：The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were investigated for present and future climates (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) in Hungary. Membership functions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of the tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present and future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional climate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21 st century. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak stands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech forests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the Southwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey oak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the current sessile oak habitats.
关键词：potential tree species distribution ; composition rate ; beech ; sessile oak ; Turkey oak