文章基本信息

标题：Using Survey Data of Inflation Expectations in the Estimation of Learning and Rational Expectations Models
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作者：Arturo Ormeño ; Krisztina Molnár
期刊名称：Discussion Papers / Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration
印刷版ISSN：0804-6824
出版年度：2014
卷号：2014
出版社：Bergen
摘要：Does survey data contain useful information for estimating macroeconomicmodels? We address this question by using survey data of inationexpectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters(2007) and compare its performance under rational expectations and adaptivelearning. The survey information serves as an additional moment restrictionand helps us to determine the learning agents' forecasting modelfor ination. Adaptive learning fares similarly to rational expectations intting macro data, but clearly outperforms rational expectations in ttingmacro and survey data simultaneously. In other words survey data containsadditional information that is not present in the macro data alone.
关键词：survey data; learning; rational expectations; in;ation expectations;Bayesian econometrics