文章基本信息

标题：Long-run effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the US agricultural economy
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作者：Jody L Campiche ; Henry L Bryant ; James W Richardson 等
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2010
卷号：5
期号：1
页码：014018
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/5/1/014018
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：Renewable energy production has been expanding at a rapid pace. New advances in cellulosic ethanol technologies have the potential to displace the use of petroleum as a transportation fuel, and could have significant effects on both the agricultural economy and the environment. In this letter, the effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the mix of ethanol feedstocks employed and on the US agricultural economy are examined. Results indicate that, as expected, cellulosic ethanol production increases by a substantial amount as conversion technology improves. Corn production increases initially following the introduction of cellulosic technology, because producers enjoy new revenue from sales of corn stover. After cellulosic ethanol production becomes substantially cheaper, however, acres are shifted from corn production to all other agricultural commodities. Essentially, this new technology could facilitate the exploitation of a previously under-employed resource (corn stover), resulting in an improvement in overall welfare. In the most optimistic scenario considered, 68% of US ethanol is derived from cellulosic sources, coarse grain production is reduced by about 2%, and the prices of all food commodities are reduced modestly.