文章基本信息

标题：A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals
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作者：Karl H. Schlag ; Joël J. van der Weele
期刊名称：CREED Working Papers / Center for Research in Experimental Economics and Political Decision-Making
出版年度：2015
页码：456-468
出版社：Amsterdam
摘要：We show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a “most likely interval”, a set of future outcomes that aredeemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks theexpert for an interval and pays according to how well the answer compares to the actual outcome. We show that the MLIperforms well in economic experiments, and satisfies a number of desirable theoretical properties such as robustness to therisk preferences of the exper
关键词：Belief elicitation; scoring rules; subjective probabilities; confidence intervals