文章基本信息

标题：An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan
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作者：Saira Tufail ; Sadia Batool
期刊名称：The Lahore Journal of Economics
印刷版ISSN：1811-5438
电子版ISSN：1811-5446
出版年度：2013
卷号：18
期号：2
页码：1-35
出版社：Lahore School of Economics
摘要：In this study, we formulate a new inflation equation to capture the potential effects of gold and stock prices on inflation in Pakistan. We aim to assess the inflation-hedging properties of gold compared to other assets such as real estate, stock exchange securities, and foreign currency holdings. Applying time-series econometric techniques (cointegration and vector error correction models) to data for 1960–2010, we find that gold is a potential determinant of inflation in Pakistan. On the other hand, it also provides a complete hedge against unexpected inflation. Real estate assets are more than a complete hedge against expected inflation, although stock exchange securities outperform gold and real estate as a hedge against unexpected inflation. Foreign currency proves to be an insignificant hedge against inflation. Given the dual nature of the relationship between gold and inflation, it is increasingly important for the government to monitor and regulate the gold market in Pakistan. Moreover, stock market investment should be encouraged by the government given that asset price inflation does not pose a critical problem for Pakistan as yet
关键词：Gold prices; inflation hedging; assets; time series econometrics ; technique; Pakistan