文章基本信息

标题：Predicting Enrollment of New Criminal Justice Doctoral Programs
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作者：William E. Stone
期刊名称：American Journal of Educational Research
印刷版ISSN：2327-6126
电子版ISSN：2327-6150
出版年度：2015
卷号：3
期号：10
页码：1208-1215
DOI：10.12691/education-3-10-1
出版社：Science and Education Publishing
摘要：The study reports the results of an attempt to predict enrollment for a newly proposed doctoral program in criminology/criminal justice. The methodology used to create the enrollment projection was a differential equation utilizing a combination of survey data and existing archival data. The study compares the projection results to the first five years of actual enrollment in the program to validate the projection. While the enrollment projection was somewhat off in the first two years, in years three through five the projection was very successful. While this study focuses on a specific program, the methodology was successful and should be applicable to predicting enrollment in a wide range of programs where preexisting populations are not available to form a projection base.
关键词：population projection; doctoral programs; program justification