文章基本信息

标题：A Linear Regression Quantitative Approach to Meat Production Forecasting and Analysis in 2030: Comparison of Six Countries in the Near East
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作者：Eman Alharbi ; Noha Alsulami ; Ahsan Abdullah 等
期刊名称：Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences
电子版ISSN：2079-8407
出版年度：2015
卷号：6
期号：9
页码：443-457
出版社：ARPN Publishers
摘要：There is great scope for livestock development in agriculture where it is one of the fastest growing sectors. If properly managed, there can be good scope for economic growth. In Near East countries like Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, the food source depends on livestock. In this paper, we introduce a brief comparison between those countries according to the occupied agricultural land and agriculture production, percentage of pasture land and animal population, and the population of people with per capita income. These data are considered as the six parameters which have the strongest impact on meat production in general. After that, we make a forecast by using a linear regression quantitative approach to compare the demand for livestock meat i.e. mutton, poultry and beef for 2030 for these countries and analyse this demand using two different approaches. The first approach was by analyzing the meat production in 2030 while considering the impact of three factors which are CO2 fertilization, climatic-change vulnerability and water scarcity. The second approach takes six parameters into account in order to see their impact on meat production in 2030. In the first approach, the considered three factors adversely impact on the meat production and cause a reduction in all the countries except for the production of mutton in Jordan which is positively impacted. A great similarity was found between CO2 fertilization and water scarcity i.e. higher than that between production of beef and mutton for the six countries considered. Overall, the three factors do not seem to be favourable for the six Near East countries considered. However, in the second approach, the six parameters were found to have a positive impact on meat production in all meat types for three countries which are Iraq, Yemen, and Egypt, but had a negative impact on the mutton production in Jordan. Moreover, the meat production in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon were negatively impacted when considering these parameters for all meat types.
关键词：Near east; meat; animal-source foods; pasture land; GDP; CO2 fertilization; climatic-change vulnerability; water scarcity