文章基本信息

标题：Understanding complex biogeographic responses to climate change
本地全文：下载
作者：Rui Seabra ; David S. Wethey ; António M. Santos 等
期刊名称：Scientific Reports
电子版ISSN：2045-2322
出版年度：2015
卷号：5
DOI：10.1038/srep12930
出版社：Springer Nature
摘要：Predicting the extent and direction of species’ range shifts is a major priority for scientists and resource managers. Seminal studies have fostered the notion that biological systems responding to climate change-impacted variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) should exhibit poleward range shifts but shifts contrary to that expectation have been frequently reported. Understanding whether those shifts are indeed contrary to climate change predictions involves understanding the most basic mechanisms determining the distribution of species. We assessed the patterns of ecologically relevant temperature metrics (e.g., daily range, min, max) along the European Atlantic coast. Temperature metrics have contrasting geographical patterns and latitude or the grand mean are poor predictors for many of them. Our data suggest that unless the appropriate metrics are analysed, the impact of climate change in even a single metric of a single stressor may lead to range shifts in directions that would otherwise be classified as “contrary to prediction”.