文章基本信息

标题：Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models
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作者：Sybren Drijfhout ; Sebastian Bathiany ; Claudie Beaulieu 等
期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2015
卷号：112
期号：43
页码：E5777-E5786
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1511451112
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：SignificanceOne of the most concerning consequences of human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations is the potential for rapid regional transitions in the climate system. Yet, despite much public awareness of how "tipping points" may be crossed, little information is available as to exactly what may be expected in the coming centuries. We assess all Earth System Models underpinning the recent 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and systematically search for evidence of abrupt changes. We do find abrupt changes in sea ice, oceanic flows, land ice, and terrestrial ecosystem response, although with little consistency among the models. A particularly large number is projected for warming levels below 2{degrees}. We discuss mechanisms and include methods to objectively classify abrupt climate change. Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2{degrees
关键词：abrupt climate change ; critical transitions ; CMIP5 ; IPCC ; climate change