文章基本信息

标题：Modelling and Predicting the Fiscal Pressure Indicator in the European Union
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作者：Mihaela Simionescu, Mirela Niculae
期刊名称：Academic Journal of Economic Studies
印刷版ISSN：2393-4913
电子版ISSN：2393-4933
出版年度：2015
期号：3968
页码：35-44
出版社：Editura Universitara
摘要：The main goal of this research is to model and predict the fiscal pressure indicator and the real GDP rate in the European Union during 1996-2013 using the vectorial autoregressive approach. According to Granger test for causality, only the real GDP rate is a cause of the weight tax in GDP, the relationship not being reciprocal. The fiscal pressure volatility is due mainly to the evolution of this indicator, but the influence decreases in time, not descending under 82%. More than 41% of the variation in real growth is explained by the fiscal pressure volatility starting with the 6th lag. The static and deterministic simulation generated the best predictions of the fiscal pressure indicator on the horizon 2011-2013.