文章基本信息

标题：Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Prices for Wheat and Rice in Pakistan
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作者：Saqib Shakeel Abbasi , Irum Raza , M.Saleem Abid
期刊名称：Azerbaijanian Journal of Economics and Social Studies
印刷版ISSN：2409-6741
电子版ISSN：2410-3268
出版年度：2015
期号：3680
页码：77-86
出版社：Ramil Huseyn
摘要：The major crops under this study are Wheat, Rice (Basmati and IRRI). These two crops are the basis requirements of every household. Price trends during different periods have been analyzed in this study. Different models have been applied to get the best fitted model and further it was used for forecasting purposes for the next five years i.e from 2013-2017. These models were linear trend model, quadratic trend model, exponential growth model and S – curve model. The minimum values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Squared Deviation (MSD) have been acquired and then the forecasting was made for the best fitted model with minimum of error. Five year average of the prices for the individual crop(s) was also calculated to observe the past trend. The study demonstrates that for Wheat and Rice (basmati & IRRI); S – Curve model was recommended model for forecasting price in next five years. The study presents an insight to national policy makers regarding the essential crops and provides them with a reference range of price in future. Keywords: Price Forecasting, Wheat, Rice, Agricultural Commodities, Pakistan.