文章基本信息

标题：Change points of global temperature
本地全文：下载
作者：Niamh Cahill ; Stefan Rahmstorf ; Andrew C Parnell 等
期刊名称：Environmental Research Letters
印刷版ISSN：1748-9326
电子版ISSN：1748-9326
出版年度：2015
卷号：10
期号：8
页码：084002
DOI：10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084002
语种：English
出版社：IOP Publishing Ltd
摘要：We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend since ~1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.