文章基本信息

标题：Significant improvements of the space-time ETAS model for forecasting of accurate baseline seismicity
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作者：Yosihiko Ogata
期刊名称：Earth, Planets and Space
电子版ISSN：1880-5981
出版年度：2011
卷号：63
期号：3
页码：217-229
DOI：10.5047/eps.2010.09.001
出版社：Springer Verlag
摘要：The space-time version of the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is based on the empirical laws for aftershocks, and constructed with a certain space-time function for earthquake clustering.For more accurate seismic prediction, we modify it to deal with not only anisotropic clustering but also regionally distinct characteristics of seismicity.The former needs a quasi-real-time cluster analysis that identifies the aftershock centroids and correlation coefficient of a cluster distribution.The latter needs the space-time ETAS model with location dependent parameters.Together with the Gutenberg-Richter’s magnitude-frequency law with location-dependent b -values, the elaborated model is applied for short-term, intermediate-term and long-term forecasting of baseline seismic activity. Key words Anisotropic clusters Bayesian method b-values, Delaunay tessellation location dependent parameters probability forecasting.
关键词：Anisotropic clusters ;Bayesian method ;b-values, Delaunay tessellation ;location dependent parameters ;probability forecasting