期刊名称：South East European Journal of Economics and Business
印刷版ISSN：1840-118X
出版年度：2015
卷号：10
期号：1
页码：7-17
DOI：10.1515/jeb-2015-0001
语种：English
出版社：Walter de Gruyter GmbH
摘要：The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB) is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX) market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.
关键词：central bank policies ; monetary transmission effects ; inflation targeting
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