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标题：Has there been a decrease in mortality due to heat waves in Spain? Findings from a multicity case study
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作者：C. Linares ; R. Sánchez ; I.J. Mirón 等
期刊名称：Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences
印刷版ISSN：1943-815X
电子版ISSN：1943-8168
出版年度：2015
卷号：12
期号：2
页码：153-163
DOI：10.1080/1943815X.2015.1062032
出版社：Taylor & Francis
摘要：Abstract Since the heat wave that took place in the summer of 2003, many heat wave prevention plans have been implemented in Europe but very few have been evaluated from the point of view of reducing mortality. In Spain, the Ministry of Health implemented the National Plan for Preventive Actions against the Health Effects of Excess Temperatures in 2004. Using the definition of heat wave threshold temperature based on the 95th percentile of the daily maximum temperature in the summer months, we fitted ARIMA models for attributable mortality due to natural causes (ICD-10:A00-R99), for each year from 1991 to 2008, for each provincial capital city in Castile-La Mancha. The impact on mortality for each degree Celsius was compared with the results before and after implementation of the 2004 Plan. The results indicate that, although a significant decrease in heat-related mortality was observed in some provinces, in others this decrease was not significant. Heat waves having a lower Heat Wave Index, which occurred after 2004, had a higher impact on daily mortality than did those, which occurred before this date. Hence, it cannot be concluded that the observed decrease in mortality is due to the implementation of the prevention plans.
关键词：heat; waves ; mortality ; prevention plans ; thresholds