文章基本信息

标题：Energy Consumption Forecasting Using Semantic-Based Genetic Programming with Local Search Optimizer
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作者：Mauro Castelli ; Leonardo Trujillo ; Leonardo Vanneschi 等
期刊名称：Computational Intelligence and Neuroscience
印刷版ISSN：1687-5265
电子版ISSN：1687-5273
出版年度：2015
卷号：2015
DOI：10.1155/2015/971908
出版社：Hindawi Publishing Corporation
摘要：Energy consumption forecasting (ECF) is an important policy issue in today’s economies. An accurate ECF has great benefits for electric utilities and both negative and positive errors lead to increased operating costs. The paper proposes a semantic based genetic programming framework to address the ECF problem. In particular, we propose a system that finds (quasi-)perfect solutions with high probability and that generates models able to produce near optimal predictions also on unseen data. The framework blends a recently developed version of genetic programming that integrates semantic genetic operators with a local search method. The main idea in combining semantic genetic programming and a local searcher is to couple the exploration ability of the former with the exploitation ability of the latter. Experimental results confirm the suitability of the proposed method in predicting the energy consumption. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that including a local searcher in the geometric semantic genetic programming system can speed up the search process and can result in fitter models that are able to produce an accurate forecasting also on unseen data.