文章基本信息

标题：Influence de l’enrobage du dilemme de Monty Hall sur la résistance au changement
其他标题：Influence of display on resistance to change, facing the cognitive illusion induced by the “Monty Hall Dilemma”
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作者：Bianco, Romina ; Lamare, Céline ; Mondouet, Sébastien 等
期刊名称：Acta Comportamentalia: Revista Latina de Análisis del Comportamiento
印刷版ISSN：0188-8145
出版年度：2010
卷号：16
期号：2
语种：French
出版社：Acta Comportamentalia: Revista Latina de Análisis del Comportamiento
摘要：De façon analogue aux illusions optiques, le raisonnement induit parfois des erreurs systématiques de jugement, appelées illusions cognitives. Le dilemme de Monty Hall constitue l’une des plus étudiées. Sous sa forme classique, il se présente comme un choix entre trois gobelets, l’un d’eux cachant un gain à trouver. Une fois le gobelet choisi, l’expérimentateur retire l’un des deux autres sous lequel ne se trouve pas le gain. Puis il permet au sujet de revenir sur son choix initial. Alors que les apparences induisent à considérer que la probabilité de gagner en modifiant son choix est la même qu’en le conservant (½), la probabilité de gagner est de 2/3 s’il modifie contre 1/3 s’il conserve son choix initial. Cette recherche examine l’effet d’un autre enrobage du dilemme, en utilisant trois cartes aux faces rouges pour l’une, blanches pour l’autre, et une rouge et une blanche pour la troisième, et en demandant au sujet quelle est la probabilité pour qu’une carte, dont on voit une face rouge, soit la carte aux deux faces rouges. A nouveau, cette probabilité n’est pas ½ mais 2/3. Les résultats semblent indiquer que l’illusion est si puissante qu’elle se maintient quelque soit l’enrobage.
其他摘要：Under some conditions, reasoning can induce systematical biases in judgment known as cognitive illusions. Similar to optical illusions, cognitive illusions are likely to generate non-optimal behaviours. One of the most investigated cognitive illusions is the Monty Hall dilemma. In its standard version, a subject must make a choice between three cups with one of them hiding a reward. Once the subject has made a random choice, the researcher removes one of the remaining cups under which there is no reward and offers the subject a chance to change his first choice. Despite the cognitive illusion that the odds of winning are the same as sticking to their first choice, the subject is well advised to change this first choice since the odds of winning are now 2/3 by changing his choice as opposed to 1/3 by keeping his first choice. The purpose of this research is to investigate the effect of another display of the dilemma, by using three cards : a first one red on both sides, a second one white on both sides, and a third one red on either side and white on the other. Firstly, we compared the cognitive illusion brought about by Monty Hall dilemma in its standard version to that with three cards. We then asked the subject what the chances were that a card, put on the table and presenting a red side, would be red on both sides. Here again, the chances are not 1/2 but 2/3. Secondly, so as to increase the cognitive illusion effect, two cards only have been used : the card red on both sides and the card red on either side, insofar as the card white on both sides would never show a red side and had therefore to be excluded. We then asked the subject what the chances were that a card laid down on a table and showing a red side, would be red on both sides. Here again, the chances were not 1/2 but 2/3. Thirdly, we experimented to what extent a card whose apparent side is red could happen to have a white match on its other side. Here, by definition, the chances are not 1/2 but 1/ 3. Results tend to show that the illusion is so strong that the paradox remains, whatever the equipment used.
关键词：résistance au changement; illusion cognitive; dilemme de Monty Hall; erreur de jugement; négligence du taux de base
其他关键词：Resistance to change; cognitive illusion; Monty Hall dilemma; bias of reasoning