Objective: The aim of the present study was to identify psychosocial risk factors for the incidence of recurrent headache (HA) in children/adolescents (8–15 years).

Method: In 2003 (Wave 1) a representative, population-based sample of 8800 parents was mailed a questionnaire. Those who took part were asked to participate again one year later (Wave 2). Of the parents originally contacted, 47.3% participated in both surveys. Potential risk factors concerning the areas ‘school’ and ‘emotional and behavioural problems’ were collected in Wave 1. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed to assess their predictive value for HA in Wave 2.

Results: Univariable regression analyses showed that for boys and girls most of the predictor variables influenced the incidence of recurrent HA, but only to a very low extent. When all variables were assessed jointly in a multivariable model, these factors lost their predictive power for boys. For girls, ‘academic problems’ and ‘dysfunctional stress coping’ were shown to increase the chance for the incidence of recurrent HA.

Discussion: In contrast to previous findings, school-related factors and emotional and behavioural problems failed to predict HA in boys, and only two factors appeared relevant with regard to girls. This might be due to the strict unidirectional design, which focussed exclusively on the incidence of HA.