文章基本信息

标题：Demand Forecasting in Hospital and ICUs using a Modified Propagation Dynamic Model: A novel GSEIR approach
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作者：Youssef Trardi ; Mohammed Al-kharaz ; Bouchra Ananou 等
期刊名称：IFAC PapersOnLine
印刷版ISSN：2405-8963
出版年度：2022
卷号：55
期号：10
页码：412-417
DOI：10.1016/j.ifacol.2022.09.428
语种：English
出版社：Elsevier
摘要：Compartmentalized mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is essential in understanding the epidemic's spread in the population. It helps to identify the best strategy for control and prevention. In this paper, we propose an epidemiological model to estimate disease burden statistics of infected, recovered, and deceased cases as a function of time, including two sensitive compartments, namely hospitalization and intensive care unit admissions. To formulate and solve the flow mutation from one compartment to another, we use a non-linear least squares algorithm. Our main goal is to forecast infection rates’ outcome trends to alert health authorities of potential risks of hospital overload. The approach developed has been validated using COVID-19 data. The results obtained demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the model. The model can also be applied as a benchmark for assessing disease burden in the hospital environment.
关键词：Compartmentalized mathematical modeling;Model prediction;Compartmental models in epidemiology;Infectious disease