文章基本信息

标题：Modelling water temperature in the lower Olifants River and the implications for climate change
本地全文：下载
作者：Amanda L. Adlam ; Christian T. Chimimba ; D.C. Hugo Retief 等
期刊名称：South African Journal of Science
印刷版ISSN：0038-2353
电子版ISSN：1996-7489
出版年度：2022
卷号：118
期号：7-8
页码：1-6
DOI：10.17159/sajs.2022/12953
语种：English
出版社：The Foundation for Research Development
摘要：Freshwater systems in southern Africa are under threat of climate change, not only from altered flow regimes as rainfall patterns change, but also from biologically significant increases in water temperature. Statistical models can predict water temperatures from air temperatures, and air temperatures may rise by up to 7 °C by 2100. Statistical water temperature models require less data input than physical models, which is particularly useful in data deficient regions. We validated a statistical water temperature model in the lower Olifants River, South Africa, and verified its spatial applicability in the upper Klaserie River. Monthly and daily temporal scale calibrations and validations were conducted. The results show that simulated water temperatures in all cases closely mimicked those of the observed data for both temporal resolutions and across sites (NSE>0.75 for the Olifants River and NSE>0.8 for the Klaserie). Overall, the model performed better at a monthly than a daily scale, while generally underestimating from the observed (indicated by negative percentage bias values). The statistical models can be used to predict water temperature variance using air temperature and this use can have implications for future climate projections and the effects climate change will have on aquatic species.
关键词：climate change;freshwater rivers;statistical models;water temperature;modelling