文章基本信息

标题：Financial conditions and purchasing managers' indices: exploring the links
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作者：Burcu Erik ; Marco Jacopo Lombardi ; Dubravko Mihaljek 等
期刊名称：BIS Quarterly Review: International Banking and Financial Market Developments = BIZ-Quartalsbericht: Internationales Bankgeschäft und internationale Finanzmärkte
印刷版ISSN：1012-9979
出版年度：2019
卷号：2019
语种：English
出版社：Bank for International Settlements
摘要：Purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) have found a place in global conjunctural analysis and quarterly GDP nowcasting, serving as reliable concurrent indicators of real economic activity. They also closely mirror changes in equity prices and corporate bond spreads. More surprisingly, PMIs react to changes in the dollar index, and do so in a way that runs counter to a trade competitiveness explanation. We show that the financial variables help predict PMIs and explain a significant proportion of their variation. The two seem to be linked through shifts in macroeconomic sentiment and global financing conditions.