标题:Évolution récente et future de la ressource en eau dans les Alpes. Résultats d’une modélisation hydrologique spatialisée sur le bassin de l’Isère à Grenoble
摘要:What will be the impact of the climate change on the water resources in the Alps area? Snow cover decreasing, glacier melting and severely lower level discharges are the main concern expected in this area for all water use, including hydroelectric generation. Answering to that question, imply to know how to model in details the functioning of hydrological systems and to know how to quantify climate change at these spatial scales. A new version, totally spatialized, of the EDF hydrological model MORDOR [1] was built to model the hydrology of the whole drainage basin of the Isere river at Grenoble. This hydrological model take into account all the data available on the basin (water discharge measurements, snow cover estimations through measurements and satellite observations, glacier mass balance…). The main scope of this hydrological model is to provide information about the hydroelectric generation exploitation of the Isere river basin through hydrological simulations for different sitting and for different climatic context. Inputs of the climatic scenarios, corrected and regionalized beforehand, enable to simulate river discharges and hydrological regime changes and to evaluate the trend expected for glacier melt contribution. All these results are of major interest to closely quantify the changes already observed with climate change and to get prepared for a better management and exploitation of hydroelectric generation on the Isère river basin.