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标题：Multi-Hazard Meteorological Disaster Risk Assessment for Agriculture Based on Historical Disaster Data in Jilin Province, China
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作者：Jiawang Zhang ; Jianguo Wang ; Shengbo Chen 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2022
卷号：14
期号：12
页码：7482
DOI：10.3390/su14127482
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：The impact of global climate change is gradually intensifying, and the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters poses a serious challenge to crop production. Analyzing and evaluating agricultural multi-hazard meteorological disaster risks based on historical disaster data and a summary of disaster occurrences and development patterns are important bases for the effective reduction of natural disaster risks and the regulation of agricultural production. This paper explores the technical system of agricultural multi-hazard meteorological disaster risk assessment and establishes a disaster risk assessment model based on the historical disaster data at the regional level from 1978–2020 in the first national comprehensive natural disaster risk census, carrying out multi-hazard meteorological disaster risk assessments in 18 major grain-producing regions in Jilin province. The empirical evidence shows: (1) drought and flood disasters are the key disasters for agricultural meteorological disaster prevention in Jilin province. Hotspots of drought and flood disasters are widely distributed in the study area, while hail and typhoons are mainly concentrated in the eastern region with a certain regionality. (2) The risk values of the four major meteorological disasters all decreased with the increase of the disaster index. Under the same disaster index, the disaster risk of various disasters in the main grain-producing areas is as follows: drought > flood > typhoon > hail. Under different disaster indices, Jiutai, Nongan, Yitong, Tongyu, and other places all presented high and medium–high risk levels. (3) From the spatial evolution trend, along with the rising disaster index, the risk of multi-hazard meteorological hazards is spatially oriented in a southeastern direction, and the risk level of multi-hazard meteorological hazards in the central part of the study area decreases gradually along with the increasing damage index. In addition, regional agricultural multi-hazard meteorological disaster risk reduction recommendations are made in three aspects: institutional construction, management model, and reduction capacity.