文章基本信息

标题：A User-Oriented Local Coastal Flooding Early Warning System Using Metamodelling Techniques
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作者：Déborah Idier ; Axel Aurouet ; François Bachoc 等
期刊名称：Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
电子版ISSN：2077-1312
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：11
页码：1191
DOI：10.3390/jmse9111191
语种：English
出版社：MDPI AG
摘要：Given recent scientific advances, coastal flooding events can be properly modelled. Nevertheless, such models are computationally expensive (requiring many hours), which prevents their use for forecasting and warning. In addition, there is a gap between the model outputs and information actually needed by decision makers. The present work aims to develop and test a method capable of forecasting coastal flood information adapted to users’ needs. The method must be robust and fast and must integrate the complexity of coastal flood processes. The explored solution relies on metamodels, i.e., mathematical functions that precisely and efficiently (within minutes) estimate the results that would provide the numerical model. While the principle of relying on metamodel solutions is not new, the originality of the present work is to tackle and validate the entire process from the identification of user needs to the establishment and validation of the rapid forecast and early warning system (FEWS) while relying on numerical modelling, metamodelling, the development of indicators, and information technologies. The development and validation are performed at the study site of Gâvres (France). This site is subject to wave overtopping, so the numerical phase-resolving SWASH model is used to build the learning dataset required for the metamodel setup. Gaussian process- and random forest classifier-based metamodels are used and post-processed to estimate 14 indicators of interest for FEWS users. These metamodelling and post-processing schemes are implemented in an FEWS prototype, which is employed by local users and exhibits good warning skills during the validation period. Based on this experience, we provide recommendations for the improvement and/or application of this methodology and individual steps to other sites.