文章基本信息

标题：Cyclical Risk Aversion, Precautionary Saving and Monetary Policy
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作者：Bianca De Paoli ; Pawel Zabczyk
期刊名称：CEP Discussion Paper
出版年度：2012
卷号：2012
语种：English
出版社：Centre for Economic Performance
摘要：This paper analyzes the conduct of monetary policy in an environment in which cyclical swings in risk appetite affect households' propensity to save. It uses a New-Keynesian model featuring external habit formation to show that taking note of precautionary saving motives justifies an accommodative policy bias in the face of persistent, adverse disturbances. Equally, policy should be more restrictive - i.e. `lean against the wind' - following positive shocks. Since the size of these `risk-adjustments' is increasing in the degree of macroeconomic volatility, ignoring this channel could lead to larger policy errors in turbulent times - with good luck translating into good policy.
关键词：precautionary saving;monetary policy;cyclical risk aversion;macro-finance;non-linearities