文章基本信息

标题：Scenario-based financial planning: the case of Ukrainian railways
本地全文：下载
作者：Olha Kravchenko ; Nadiia Bohomolova ; Oksana Karpenko 等
期刊名称：National Accounting Review
电子版ISSN：2689-3010
出版年度：2020
卷号：2
期号：3
页码：217-248
DOI：10.3934/NAR.2020013
语种：English
出版社：AIMS Press
摘要：The crisis in the global and national economies negatively affects the predictability of companies. In such conditions, it becomes impossible to correctly forecast and plan based on the traditional methods and models. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop an approach to forecasting and planning in conditions of high uncertainty in the functioning of companies. The methodological basis of the study is evolutionary-institutional management, which allows to consider the development of the company as a complex evolutionary process. A scenario approach is used as the basis for forecasting, which allows to study the dynamics of any company in an unstable environment. The study includes three blocks: developing scenarios, scenario forecasting, financial planning. The study is conducted based on data on the functioning of Ukrainian Railways, JSC, which is the operator of the rail infrastructure and the national carrier of goods and passengers in Ukraine. Scenarios are developed considering the specifics of the products of rail companies and based on factors (key uncertainties) that determine the effectiveness of their functioning. Scenario forecasting is based on considering the peculiarities of the company's production process, its cash cycle, and the formation of financial resources. As a result, forecast estimates are obtained for three scenarios (optimistic, pessimistic, and negative). The financial planning model is developed as a system of interrelated models of cash flow planning (operational, investment and financial). This approach allows to plan the sources of funds of the company and their use, taking into account possible changes in the external and internal environment of the company and, as a result, ensure its stable functioning in the implementation of any scenario.