文章基本信息

标题：A Novel Approach to Generate Hourly Photovoltaic Power Scenarios
本地全文：下载
作者：Stephan Schlüter ; Fabian Menz ; Milena Kojić 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2022
卷号：14
期号：8
页码：4617
DOI：10.3390/su14084617
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Photovoltaic power is playing an ever-increasing role in the energy mix of countries worldwide. It is a stochastic energy source, and simulation models are needed to establish reliable risk management. This paper presents a novel approach for simulating hourly solar irradiation and—as a consequence—photovoltaic power based on easily accessible data such as wind, temperature, and cloudiness. Solar simulations are generated via a multiplication factor that scales the maximum possible solar irradiation. Photovoltaic simulations are then derived using formulas that approximate the physical interdependencies. The resulting simulations are unbiased on an annual level and reasonably reflect historic irradiation movements. Interpreting our approach as a descriptive model, we find that error values vary over the year and with granularity. Errors are highest when considering hourly values in wintertime, especially in the morning or late afternoon.