文章基本信息

标题：Modelling Seasonal Short-Run Effects in Time-Series Tourism Prices
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作者：Sergej Gricar ; Stefan Bojnec
期刊名称：Journal of Risk and Financial Management
印刷版ISSN：1911-8074
出版年度：2022
卷号：15
期号：5
页码：1-20
DOI：10.3390/jrfm15050212
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：The paper’s primary purpose is to better monitor shocks; therefore, reliable scientific methods should be used to predict, monitor, and implement those events. In this paper, tourism prices are studied as an economic, I(2) and social phenomenon for better performance. The selection of inadequacies in price time series is analysed. The state-of-the-art proposed methodology step of nominal to real prices is based on monthly data using the cointegrated-vector-autoregressive model (CVAR). This is the key feature selection on time-series properties in the economy and supported software(s). An attempt at a CVAR model with five seasonally unadjusted macroeconomic variables is developed. It introduces a meaningful, genuine and indispensable new data vector of transformed variables, and this stepwise process is more appropriate against the wrong model specification. The results for the period of economic crises show that the proposed model is reliable from nominal to real prices, and the researchers implement normality to price modelling in its econometric mock-up phase. Overall, the proposed model predicts testable events for up to 48-months..
关键词：nominal to real price modelling ;cointegrated-vector-autoregressive-model ;Eurozone experiment ;time-series data ;macroeconomic prices