文章基本信息

标题：Weather based yield crop forecasting: Agro-Physics Approach
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作者：Dr Vinay kumar
期刊名称：Journal of Pure and Applied Science and Technology
印刷版ISSN：2231-4202
电子版ISSN：2249-9970
出版年度：2018
卷号：2018
页码：12-17
语种：English
出版社：Natthan Lal Sevarth Samiti
摘要：The present paper deals with use of non-linear regression analysis for developing Wheat yield forecast model for Jhansi (India). Weather indices based regression models were developed using weather indices as independent variables while character under study such as crop yield was used as dependent variable for Wheat Crop i.e. two step non-linear forecast model. Technique of forecasting using non-linear approach and using weather indices will enrich the knowledge in developing customized models on forecasting for different types of crops and for different locations. For that, trend analysis has been done through linear and non-linear approaches. In which for each weather variable two indices have been developed, one as simple total of values of weather parameter in different weeks and the other one as weighted total, weights being correlation coefficients between detrended yield and weather variable in respective weeks. Weather indices based regression models were developed using weather indices as independent variables while detrended yield (residuals) was considered as dependent variable. Time series yield data of 40 years (1970-2010) and weather data for the year 1970-71 to 2009-10 have been utilized. The models have been used to forecast yield in the subsequent three years 2008-09 to 2009-10 (which were not included in model development). The approach provided reliable yield forecast about two months before harvest.
关键词：Forecasting;Nonlinear regression model;Weather Indices Approach;Weather variables