文章基本信息

标题：Towards a reconceptualising of population ageing in emerging markets
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作者：Stuart Gietel-Basten ; Sergei Scherbov ; Warren Sanderson 等
期刊名称：Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
印刷版ISSN：1728-4414
电子版ISSN：1728-5305
出版年度：2016
卷号：14
页码：41-66
DOI：10.1553/populationyearbook2015s15
语种：English
出版社：Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
摘要：Variously defined, the ‘emerging markets’ [EMs] are frequently held up as the countries that will shape global economic development in the 21st century. However, it is also often said that population ageing could limit growth in many EMs. In this paper, we explore the conventional measurements employed to demonstrate population ageing in EMs, and then move on to discuss whether these measurements are, indeed, ‘fit for purpose’ when studying EMs. Drawing on the literature on ‘prospective ageing’ (pioneered by Sanderson and Scherbov), we present an alternative set of ageing measurements based on a boundary for ‘dependency’ drawn from remaining life expectancy rather than chronological age. Using these measurements, population ageing – at least as defined here – can be seen as a much more manageable prospect for many EMs. We also examine the challenges and the opportunities for EMs associated with population ageing, and consider their potential advantages relative to the EU and North America in managing this trend.