文章基本信息

标题：An Exploration of Characteristics and Time Series Forecast of Fatal Road Crashes in Manipal, India
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作者：Kumar Sumit ; Veerle Ross ; Robert A. C. Ruiter 等
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2022
卷号：14
期号：5
页码：2851
DOI：10.3390/su14052851
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Road crashes are the sixth leading cause of death in India. There has been a fourfold increase in the number of road traffic crashes in India in the last four decades and an increase of 9.8 times in the fatalities associated with that exponential increase. Manipal is a coastal place with a population of approximately 50,000 inhabitants lying in between the western Mountain range and the Arabian sea. The study’s objective is to explore the characteristics of fatal road crashes in Manipal from 2008–2018 using the data pertaining to fatal crashes retrieved from the office of the superintendent of police. Furthermore, it aims to forecast crashes by time series analysis prediction. The results show that most of the fatal crashes are due to exceeding the lawful speed limit, followed by driving under the influence of alcohol and going ahead and overtaking. The time series analysis forecasted the number of fatal crashes until the year 2025 and predicted that there will be an increase in the number of fatal road crashes by 4.5%. The results also provide essential leads for initiating specific intervention programmes targeting the causes of fatal road crashes.