文章基本信息

标题：Advantages of fuzzy approach compared to probabilistic approach in project evaluation
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作者：Simona Hašková ; Petr Šuleř ; Tomáš Krulický 等
期刊名称：Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues
电子版ISSN：2345-0282
出版年度：2021
卷号：9
期号：2
页码：446-456
DOI：10.9770/jesi.2021.9.2(29)
语种：English
出版社：Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center
摘要：Uncertainty is often encountered in relation to randomness or fuzziness.In the case of randomness, it can be described by means of a probability distribution; in the case of fuzziness, the fuzzy theory is applied.In the theoretical part, the authors deal with basic tools for describing both types of uncertainty.Probability and fuzzy method are interpreted in the context of their analogies and principal differences.Both techniques are applied in order to quantify the present expected value of a specific development project.The probabilistic solution leads to the point value E[PV], the fuzzy solution establishes the triangular fuzzy number with the subjective E[PV] not burdened with possible exaggerated expectations.The fuzzy approach proved to extend the probabilistic outcome by other additional information useful for decision-makers with different risk propensity.
关键词：uncertainty;expected value;fuzzy number;risk propensity;evaluation