文章基本信息

标题：An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico
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作者：Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. ; Adam G. Walke ; Diana Villavicencio 等
期刊名称：Journal of Finance and Economics
印刷版ISSN：2328-7284
电子版ISSN：2328-7276
出版年度：2015
卷号：3
期号：1
页码：20-28
DOI：10.12691/jfe-3-1-4
语种：English
出版社：Science and Education Publishing
摘要：An econometric model using time series analysis techniques is employed to model and forecast population changes in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The model focuses on the interplay between economic and demographic variables. Individual, cointegrated equations are generated to account for the components of population change - births, deaths, net domestic and net international migration. Birth and death equations prove easier to model because of stable changes from period to period in relation to income levels and national demographic trends. Net migration equations were more difficult to model as economic conditions, specifically labor market conditions, influence changes over time. Predefined exogenous variables are used to generate out-of-sample simulations for the individual components of population change. Using those results, total population projections are estimated until the year 2018. Doña Ana County is projected to witness a slowdown in population growth, primarily as a consequence of increased domestic out-migration.
关键词：population economics; regional economics; applied econometrics; migration; forecasting