文章基本信息

标题：Tracking global economic uncertainty: implications for the euro area
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作者：Alina Bobasu ; André Geis ; Lucia Quaglietti 等
期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2021
卷号：2021
语种：English
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper discusses the role of economic and monetary analysis in the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Both areas of analysis have evolved since the 2003 strategy review. Economic analysis has assigned an increasingly relevant role to the Eurosystem and ECB staff macroeconomic projections in forming a view on the medium-term outlook for economic activity and inflation. Furthermore, its focus has strengthened with regard to structural trends in shaping key economic relationships. Similarly, monetary analysis has shifted in focus: while the 2003 review emphasised the information value of monetary dynamics for detecting risks to price stability over medium-term to longer-term horizons, the focus of monetary analysis has increasingly been redirected to the assessment of monetary policy transmission. This evolution has opened a gap between the formal description of the strategy following the 2003 review and the practice of economic and monetary analysis in informing the ECB’s policy deliberations. This paper concludes by presenting options for closing this gap and aligning the strategy formulation with the evolved role of economic and monetary analysis.