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标题：High-Resolution Regional Climate Modeling and Projection of Heatwave Events over the Yangtze River Basin
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作者：Zhibo Gao ; Xiaodong Yan
期刊名称：Sustainability
印刷版ISSN：2071-1050
出版年度：2022
卷号：14
期号：3
页码：1141
DOI：10.3390/su14031141
语种：English
出版社：MDPI, Open Access Journal
摘要：Heatwave events (HWEs) have strong impacts on human health, ecosystems, and sustainable social development. Using a gridded observation dataset and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), this study analyzed the characteristics of HWEs over the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in eastern China during the historical period and projected the changes in HWEs over the YRB in the future. The daily maximum temperature (Tmax), long-lived (≥6 days) HWEs, and total (≥3 days) HWEs in the YRB all showed an obvious upward trend from 1981 to 2018, while the increase in short-lived (≥3 days and <6 days) HWEs was relatively moderate overall. The RCM of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can simulate the characteristics of Tmax and HWEs in the historical period very well, and the projection results showed that Tmax, total HWEs, and long-lived HWEs will all increase obviously in both the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. Short-lived HWEs will also increase rapidly under SSP585, but they will rise slowly overall under SSP245. The changes in HWEs had distinct regional differences, and the intensity and coverage area of HWEs were greater under SSP585 overall. In the future, the increase in HWEs over the YRB region is likely to be associated with the enhancement of the western-Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and South-Asian high (SAH), and this enhancement was also greater under SSP585. The results from the high-resolution simulation of the RCM can provide an important reference for disaster prevention and mitigation in the future.